Aluminum prices and global supply/demand dynamics: Alcoa's profitability is highly sensitive to the fluctuating global prices of aluminum, which are influenced by supply chain stability, production levels, and industrial demand worldwide.

Energy prices and production costs: As aluminum production is an energy-intensive process, volatility in energy costs, particularly for natural gas and electricity, significantly impacts Alcoa's operational expenses and profit margins.

Geopolitical tensions and trade policies: Global geopolitical events and evolving trade policies, such as tariffs on imported metals, can lead to supply disruptions, affect commodity prices, and alter Alcoa's competitive landscape and market access.